Document Type : Reseach Article

Authors

• Somasundaram VASUDEVAN
• Kandasamy Jothinathan

Department of Electrical Engineering, Annamalai University, Chidambaram, India.

Abstract

Short-term electrical load forecasting plays a pivotal role in modern energy systems, addressing the need for accurate predictions of electricity demand within a time frame ranging from a few hours to a few days. The implications of inaccurate predictions extend beyond operational challenges to potential economic and environmental consequences, emphasizing the critical role that short-term electrical load forecasting plays in the modern energy landscape. The purpose of this research is to address the aforementioned consequences by developing an optimally configured Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for predicting short-term electrical load forecasting in Tamil Nadu, specifically focusing on India's Villupuram region. While LSTM models are recognized for their overall effectiveness, their performance in short-term electrical load forecasting necessitates a tailored approach. Hyperparameter optimization is the appropriate choice for configuring the LSTM model for short-term electrical load forecasting. The manual or trial-and-error process in hyperparameter tuning is time-consuming and complex to compute. To address this, the research integrates the Cauchy-distributed Harris Hawks Optimization (Cd-HHO) approach for the optimal configuration of the LSTM model. The optimally configured LSTM through Cd-HHO consistently achieves lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) compared to other state-of-the-art methods, which is 0.7225 in the 2017 database, 0.974 in the 2018 database, and 0.116 in the 2019 database.

Keywords

• short-term load forecasting
• Long Short-Term Memory
• Cauchy-distributed Harris Hawks Optimization
• hyperparameters tuning
• Uncertainties in weather forecasts
• Power system management
• Villupuram region